Good afternoon people,
Fall is the gift that keeps on giving…and giving…and giving. Hope everyone got some time in the lineup this weekend and/or yesterday afternoon. If you were unable to, don’t worry…more surf is on the way. For those of you that scored the past two swells, you can give your arms a rest for a couple days. Let’s talk surf for the end of the week.
A low-pressure system will develop off of the southeast coast later today, then track up along the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday/Thursday night before moving into New England on Friday. This system will likely develop into a nor’easter. High pressure then builds over the Northeast Friday night into the weekend.
From late today into Friday morning, strong, gale-force easterly/southeasterly winds will kick up a sizeable mix of E/SE windswell for NY and RI. Swells are then forecasted to shift to a more southerly direction by noon Friday, fading throughout the day. Peak surf heights of ~12-14 ft @ ~8-10 seconds out of the SE are forecasted for Friday morning for NY and RI.
While size certainly isn’t the issue with this swell, models are more in disagreement over winds. It’s a bit difficult to nail down a time for good conditions as of now, but we are hopeful that Friday will see windows of good conditions. Depending on the track of the storm, winds will be good for most breaks in NY/RI, or good for select locations. The Euro model shows the storm center to track more inland, which would yield strong NW/W winds by the afternoon on Friday – not as favorable. The GFS is modeling the storm center to stay further off the coastline as it moves northward, which would allow for a 2-3 hour window of ideal offshore winds for NY and RI late Friday morning into the afternoon as the system exits the Northeast.
1st Image: The GFS model of the storm location on Friday at 12pm with wind barbs and mean sea level pressure (courtesy of Tropical Tidbits).
2nd Image: WW3 surf model for Friday at 12pm (courtesy of Tropical Tidbits).
3rd Image: Montauk Buoy 44017 forecast for November 14th to 21st (courtesy of stormsurf.com).
If the storm follows the GFS model, many spots in RI and NY will be good. If the storm tracks more inland, whereby winds go NW/W, we encourage our RI surfers to check their favorite east-facing breaks, and our NY surfers to potentially road trip down to Monmouth county area where winds will be more offshore.
To sum it all up, sometime on Friday from late morning to the afternoon is your best bet for fun surf and good conditions. We encourage you all to keep an eye on your favorite forecasting sites today and tomorrow as models change.
Tides for NY on Friday:
1st High - 1:29am
1st Low - 7:40am
2nd High - 1:41pm
2nd Low - 8:16pm
Tides for RI on Friday:
1st High - 1:47am
1st Low - 7:07am
2nd High - 2:07pm
2nd Low - 7:52pm
Lastly…it’s a nor’easter everybody. THAT MEANS COLD AIR TEMPS AND BITING WIND CHILLS! If you’re not equipped with proper rubber, you won’t get the most out of your session. Please stop into one of our shops if you’re in need of good neoprene! We are stocked up with the best hard goods on the market and we’re handing out deals! Good luck Friday, we hope you score!
The BW Team