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Incoming Nor'easter Swell for the Northeast on Friday

November 14, 2018

Good afternoon people,


Fall is the gift that keeps on giving…and giving…and giving. Hope everyone got some time in the lineup this weekend and/or yesterday afternoon. If you were unable to, don’t worry…more surf is on the way. For those of you that scored the past two swells, you can give your arms a rest for a couple days. Let’s talk surf for the end of the week.


A low-pressure system will develop off of the southeast coast later today, then track up along the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday/Thursday night before moving into New England on Friday. This system will likely develop into a nor’easter. High pressure then builds over the Northeast Friday night into the weekend.


From late today into Friday morning, strong, gale-force easterly/southeasterly winds will kick up a sizeable mix of E/SE windswell for NY and RI. Swells are then forecasted to shift to a more southerly direction by noon Friday, fading throughout the day. Peak surf heights of ~12-14 ft @ ~8-10 seconds out of the SE are forecasted for Friday morning for NY and RI.


While size certainly isn’t the issue with this swell, models are more in disagreement over winds. It’s a bit difficult to nail down a time for good conditions as of now, but we are hopeful that Friday will see windows of good conditions. Depending on the track of the storm, winds will be good for most breaks in NY/RI, or good for select locations. The Euro model shows the storm center to track more inland, which would yield strong NW/W winds by the afternoon on Friday – not as favorable. The GFS is modeling the storm center to stay further off the coastline as it moves northward, which would allow for a 2-3 hour window of ideal offshore winds for NY and RI late Friday morning into the afternoon as the system exits the Northeast.